The situation reversed on the battlefield in eastern Ukraine

As fighting enters its fifth month, Russian forces have broken through most of Ukraine’s defense lines in the eastern province of Lugansk and control the land corridor from Donbass to Crimea in southern Ukraine.

Russian forces in recent weeks have been heavily shelling the last positions that Ukraine controls in Lugansk province.

Russia and the separatists have not yet closed the siege on Lysychansk, but have put the Ukrainian forces defending there in a `dangerous` situation, according to Leonid Pasechnik, leader of the self-proclaimed Lugansk People’s Republic (LPR).

Russian forces also stepped up their attacks in Donetsk province, moving closer to the belt of industrial towns running from southern Sloviansk, through Kramatorsk to Kostiantynivka.

T-80 tanks of pro-Russian separatists at the front line in Lugansk province, eastern Ukraine on June 8.

According to Western experts, in Lysychansk and many towns along the Donbass front line, Russia may continue to implement the tactics it used in Severodonetsk, putting Ukrainian soldiers at risk of shelling to the point of having to continue.

The dilemma for Ukrainian forces is whether they are determined to defend Lysychansk when faced with the risk of losing human resources and weapons in a scenario where the city is besieged.

The current situation on the battlefield is completely different from the first phase of the campaign, when the Russian army encountered many logistical and operational coordination difficulties, making it impossible for them to promote their overwhelming advantage in firepower and suffering.

The improvement of the logistics supply system thanks to the dense railway network in the Donbass region, combined with changes in combat tactics, has helped Russian forces `reverse` the battlefield situation in a favorable direction.

Air defense complexes, mainly S-300s, were deployed to cover the vast airspace in Donbass, making Ukraine’s unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) raids less effective.

However, the Russian army does not seem to have made much progress in its offensive from Izyum to northern Sloviansk, despite continuous raid efforts to break through Ukrainian lines.

Ukrainian officials said last weekend that Russia and separatists were gathering troops in northern Sloviansk.

Situation on the battlefield in eastern Ukraine after 4 months of fighting.

How long Russia can maintain its current momentum and battlefield situation is still a big question.

The Ukrainian army today also announced the use of missiles and artillery to attack Russian forces stationed on Zmiinyi island off the coast of the Black Sea, forcing Russian soldiers to retreat.

However, it is difficult for Ukraine to create similar results in the eastern battlefield.

The pressure is even greater when the most experienced units that Ukraine deployed to the Donbass region are significantly depleted in numbers under Russia’s overwhelming artillery fire and have difficulty finding replacement resources.

Ukrainian forces also suffered losses in equipment on the front lines in the east.

Russia announced that it would use ‘thermobaric fire’ weapons to attack Ukrainian targets

Russian TOS-1A rocket artillery participated in the military campaign in Ukraine in a video released on June 24.

According to the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the biggest question today is that after breaking Ukraine’s defense lines in Donetsk province, will Russia take the opportunity to expand the campaign beyond the Donbass region or not?

ISW believes that if Russia expands the scale of the campaign, it could reach the east bank of the Dnieper River and essentially divide Ukraine into two parts.

Despite the war situation tilting unfavorably for Ukraine in recent weeks, Western experts say there is much evidence that Russia also suffered high losses in armored vehicles.

ISW commented that Russia `intends to launch a long-term military campaign in Ukraine, and is increasing its efforts to support long-term military and political goals in the areas it controls in neighboring countries.`